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怒江流量从5月份明显增加,5~10月的流量和占全年的81.92%,月均在13.65%,其他月月均仅为3%,月均流量为其他月份的4.5倍.说明流量的季节性变化大,且集中在雨季.1~4月流量与同期降雨关系密切,除7月流量外,其他月流量与雨量存在1个月的滞后性;5月雨量对年和干季流量影响很大.雨季、干季和年降水与怒江出境流量主要有16年、8年以及2~4年周期.年降雨和流量存在2~4年的低频振荡.年、雨季和干季流量变化一致,并呈增加趋势.在12个月、年、雨季和干季中,除6月、8月变化趋势不明显外,大多数都通过0.05的置信度检验,说明随时间变化显著.结果表明,年流量平均每10年增加57.6m3/s,而干季平均每10年流量增加28.1m3/s,9月和雨季的流量,平均每10年分别增加123.3m3/s和85.7m3/s.怒江出境径流量与流域温度、雨量的变化基本一致,气候变化已引起怒江流量的变化,怒江流量增加最大的是10月,其次是5月,造成年流量增加近60m3/s.未来20年怒江流量前期降低,后期处于增加的趋势.
The flow of Nu River increased obviously from May, the flow from May to October accounted for 81.92% of the whole year, with a monthly average of 13.65%, other monthly average of only 3% and average monthly flow of 4.5 times of other months. Seasonal changes, and concentrated in the rainy season .First to April flow and the same period rainfall is closely related, in addition to July flow, the other monthly flow and rainfall there is a month of lag; May rainfall on the annual and dry season flow The annual rainfall and the flow of Nujiang have two to four years of low frequency oscillation.The annual, rainy and dry season flow changes are consistent , And showed a trend of increase.While in 12 months, year, rainy season and dry season, most of them passed the confidence test of 0.05, except that the trend of June and August was not obvious, which showed that the change with time was significant.The results showed that, Annual flow increased by 57.6m3 / s on average every 10 years, while on dry season the average annual flow increased by 28.1m3 / s. In September and the rainy season, the average annual flow increased by 123.3m3 / s and 85.7m3 / s every 10 years. Exit runoff and basin temperature, rainfall changes are basically the same, climate change has caused the Nu River flow changes, the Nujiang largest increase in traffic is 1 0 month, followed by May, resulting in an annual increase of nearly 60m3 / s. In the next two decades, the Nujiang River flow will be reduced in the early period and will increase in the later period.