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在杉木种子产量气象影响因子筛选的基础上,利用广义模糊综合评判模型M(·,⊕)对杉木种子园产量的气象学预测方法进行了研究。结果表明,影响杉木种子产量的主导气象因子是前一年8月份的平均气温、日照时数、降水量,前一年10月份的日照时数,当年3月份的平均气温、日照时数、降水量和4月份的平均气温。利用这些气象因子,结合林分年龄建立了杉木种子园产量年景的综合评判模型,其模型对杉木种子园产量年景的预测拟合度达84.6%,且预测的超前性为8个月,是林木种子产量预测的有效方法之一。
Based on the screening of the influencing factors of Chinese fir seed yield, the meteorological prediction methods of Cunninghamia lanceolata seed production were studied by using generalized fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model M (·, ⊕). The results showed that the dominant meteorological factors that affected the seed production of Cunninghamia lanceolata were the average temperature in August of the previous year, sunshine hours, precipitation, sunshine duration in October of the previous year, average temperature in March of the same year, sunshine duration, precipitation Volume and the average temperature in April. Based on the meteorological factors and the stand ages, the comprehensive evaluation model of Chinese fir seed orchard production year was established. The model predicts the annual yield of Chinese fir seed orchard to reach 84.6% and the predicted advance is 8 months. It is one of the effective methods to forecast the seed yield of forest.