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本文使用我国分省分税种和分省分GDP数据形成的分年度截面数据,通过双对数模型计算出我国税收经济内置弹性,并计算出基于税制及税收征管水平影响下的理论税收增长率,经过相关性分析和回归分析,得出结论:在经济总量一定的前提下,我国税收征管水平的变动是税收增速变动的最主要原因,而税制的变动对税收增速的影响并不显著。
This paper uses the annual cross-sectional data of China’s tax-sharing provinces and provincial-level GDP data to calculate the built-in elasticity of China’s tax economy through double logarithm model, and calculates the theoretical tax revenue growth rate under the influence of the tax system and tax collection and administration level, Through the correlation analysis and regression analysis, it is concluded that under the premise of a certain economic aggregate, the change of tax collection and administration in our country is the most important reason for the change of tax revenue. However, the impact of the tax system on tax revenue growth is not significant .