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目的筛选出影响动物鼠疫流行的主要影响因素的监测指标,建立达乌尔黄鼠疫源地动物鼠疫流行预警指标体系。方法对内蒙古自治区的达乌尔黄鼠疫源地整体数据,利用Matlab软件中最优回归子集法建立回归方程,筛选出与动物鼠疫流行相关性最大的监测指标。结果从7个指标中选取鼠密度、鼠体染蚤率、鼠体蚤指数、洞干蚤指数等4个监测指标建立达乌尔黄鼠疫源地动物鼠疫预测预警回归方程;对回归模型利用原始数据进行拟合,拟合率为83.3%。结论利用鼠密度、鼠体染蚤率、鼠体蚤指数、洞干蚤指数等4个监测指标,即可完成对黄鼠疫源地动物鼠疫流行的预测预警。
Objective To screen out the main influencing factors that affect the epidemic of animal plague and establish the epidemic warning index system of animal plague in Daurian ground squirrel. Methods The whole data of Daurian ground squirrel foci in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region were collected and the regression equation was established by using the optimal regression subset method in Matlab software to screen out the most relevant monitoring index for the epidemic of animal plague. Results Four indicators of rat density, rat flea infection rate, rat flea index and dry-hole flea index were selected from the seven indicators to establish the prediction and warning of animal plague in Daurian ground squirrel. The regression model was constructed using primitive Data fitting, the fitting rate was 83.3%. Conclusions The prediction of animal epidemics in the yellow cholera epidemic area can be accomplished by using four monitoring indexes: rat density, flea infection rate, rat flea index and cave flea index.