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在CN算法的应用中,区域的选择很重要,因此,把用于划定区域的地震构造判据进行了检验。在以往使用CN算法并考虑震中分布和构造模型的分析(Keilis-Borok et al.,1990;Costa et al.,1995;Costa et al .,1996)中划定了3个主要区域,用于搜寻与未来地震有关的前兆失稳图象。这些区域的划分没有明确的边界线,在这些区域之间,有可能识别出一些中间地区,这些地区可以属于界线两侧的某一个区域,把这种中间地区加进主要区域之后,可以缩短强震发生概率增长时间(TIP)的预警时间。为了进一步将意大利半岛的地球动力学复杂性也考虑在内,我们严格按照地震构造模型,仅将具有相似的发震构造性质的区域及其过渡区划在一个区域之内。按照这种方法,成功地划分了3个区域,相应于意大利北部、中部和南部。与以往的结果相比,预报结果的时间-空间不确定性降低,而稳定性提高,说明意大利的地震构造模型是适用的。
In the application of CN algorithm, the choice of area is very important. Therefore, the criterion of seismic structure for delineating area is tested. Three major regions were delineated in the past using the CN algorithm with analysis of epicenter distributions and structural models (Keilis-Borok et al., 1990; Costa et al., 1995; Costa et al., 1996) Pre-destabilized images related to future earthquakes. There is no clear boundary for the division of these areas, and between these areas it is possible to identify intermediate areas which may belong to one of the two areas on either side of the border, and the addition of such an intermediate area to the main area can shorten the Pre-warning time of probability of occurrence of earthquake (TIP). In order to further take into account the geodynamic complexity of the Italian Peninsula, we strictly follow the seismic structural model, and only regions with similar seismogenic structures and their transitional regions are within a single region. Following this method, three regions were successfully divided, corresponding to the northern, central and southern Italy. Compared with the previous results, the time-space uncertainty of the forecast results is reduced and the stability is improved, which shows that the seismotectonic model of Italy is suitable.