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与20世纪90年代的基本平衡相比,21世纪以来日本对华贸易呈现出顺差且差额不断增大的发展态势。究其原因,货币性因素并不是近年来日本对华贸易出现顺差的主要原因,中日两国所处经济周期的不同阶段和人均收入增速的巨大差异相对影响更大,而结构性因素特别是日本对华贸易与投资结构的阶段性变化是造成21世纪以来日本对华贸易差额发展出现阶段性差异的根本原因。在未来较长时期内,日本对华贸易仍将持续顺差,中日两国经济增速的差异、消费和投资结构的变动以及中国外贸发展战略的调整、日本大地震和欧债危机等因素,都会对两国贸易的未来发展产生影响。
Compared with the basic balance of the 1990s, Japan’s trade with China has shown a favorable balance of trade with China in the 21st century. The reason is that the monetary factor is not the main reason for Japan’s trade with China in recent years. The huge differences between the different stages of the economic cycle in which China and Japan are located and the growth rate of per capita income have a greater impact, while the structural factors The phase change of Japan’s trade and investment structure with China is the fundamental reason for the phase difference in the development of Japan’s trade balance with China since the 21st century. In the longer term, Japan’s trade with China will continue to suffer a surplus. The differences in economic growth between China and Japan, the changes in consumption and investment structure, the adjustment of China’s foreign trade development strategy, the Great Earthquake in Japan and the debt crisis in Europe, Will have an impact on the future development of bilateral trade.