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以IPCC第五次评估报告发布的气候情景RCP2.6为背景,利用浙江乍浦1954—2012年的最高潮位数据建立灰色均生函数模型,对乍浦未来几十年的最高水位进行预测,通过耿贝尔曲线法计算海平面上升不同情况下的极端高水位的重现期.结果表明:灰色均生函数模型在极端高水位的模拟和预测方面具有较高的精度,但其对极值的预测略有欠缺,更适用于平均态的预测;随着气候的变化,极端高水位的重现期发生明显变化,二三十年后原百年一遇的极端高水位可能变为二三十年左右一遇.
Based on the RCP2.6 climate scenario released in the Fifth Assessment Report of IPCC, a gray mean function model was established based on the highest tide level data from 1954 to 2012 in Zhapu of Zhejiang Province to predict the highest water level of Zhapu in the coming decades. Curve method to calculate the return period of extreme high water level under different sea level rise.The results show that the gray mean function model has higher accuracy in the simulation and prediction of extreme high water level, Lack of more applicable to the average state of the forecast; as the climate changes, the extreme high water level of significant changes in the reappearance of 20 to 30 years after the original one hundred years of extreme high water level may become about two or three decades .