THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER DEFICIT AND PRODUCTION OF WINTER WHEAT IN NORTH CHINA

来源 :Acta Meteorologica Sinica | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:yjjqwertyuiop
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The water deficits in different development stages and the whole growing season of winterwheat in North China under climate change scenarios are analyzed based on the meteorological da-ta,crop phenomenon and soil hydrological data of 30 weather stations.The results show that ifthe temperature rises,the potential evapotranspiration and crop maximum transpiration will in-crease 8%-10%;the actual evapotranspiration in whole growing season will increase about 1%-2%;and it seems to decrease in spring.Therefore the water deficit status would deteriorate.Theamount of water deficit in whole growing season would increase 14%-30%,and the water deficitisolines might shift southward with maximum shift distance being 190 km.As a result the climaticsuitability of winter wheat would change,and the variation rate of yield reduction will be 8%-20% of the present value which results in the declining output values.The irrigation amountwould increase 25%-33%,and the agriculture cost might increase owing to additional irrigation. The water deficits in different development stages and the whole growing season of winterwheat in North China under climate change scenarios are based on the meteorological da-ta, crop phenomenon and soil hydrological data of 30 weather stations. The results show that if the temperature rises, the potential evapotranspiration and crop maximum transpiration will in-crease 8% -10%; the actual evapotranspiration in the growing season will increase about 1% -2%; and it seems to decrease in spring.Therefore the water deficit status would deteriorate.The amount of water deficit in whole growing season would increase 14% -30%, and the water deficitisolines might shift southward with maximum shift distance being 190 km. As a result of the climaticsuitability of winter wheat would change, and the variation rate of yield reduction will be 8% -20% of the present value which results in the declining output values. The irrigation amount increased 25% -33%, and the agriculture cost might increase due t o additional irrigation.
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