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2008年世界粮食价格波动可谓惊心动魄,史所罕见。以四大粮食品种小麦、玉米、稻谷、大豆的CBOT价格为例。CBOT小麦指数年初以842.5点开盘,3月13日上涨到全年最高点1293.7点,上涨54%,随后一路下跌至最低481.8点,下跌63%。CBOT玉米指数年初以469.0点开盘,6月27日上涨到全年最高点791.7点,半年多时间上涨69%,然后一路暴跌至311.6,下跌60%。大豆价格波动更加剧烈,用“过山车”来形容一点不为过。CBOT大豆指数以1223.7点开盘,先是上涨27%至1549.2点(2月29日),然后下跌30%至1091.1点(4月1日),再次上涨50%至1641.1(7月3日),然后一路暴跌62%至782.8点(12月5日)。CBOT糙米价格1-4月上涨63%,随后下跌42%。面对粮食价格罕见的剧烈波动,我们自然会追问背后的决定因素,也就是说什么因素导致了粮价短期内的剧烈波动?
The volatility of world food prices in 2008 can be described as a soul-stirring history rare. Take the CBOT price of the four major grain varieties of wheat, corn, rice and soybean as an example. The CBOT wheat index opened 842.5 points at the beginning of the year, rising to a peak of 1293.7 points on the 13th of the whole month, up 54% and dropping to a low of 481.8 points, down 63% all the way. The CBOT Corn Index opened at 469.0 at the beginning of the year, rising to a peak of 791.7 points on the 27th of June. It rose 69% in more than half a year, then slumped to 311.6, down 60%. Soybean price volatility more intense, with “roller coaster ” to describe it not to overexert. The CBOT soybeans index opened at 1223.7 points, up 27% at 1549.2 points (on February 29), then down 30% to 1091.1 points (April 1) and up 50% again to 1641.1 (July 3) before Plunged 62% to 782.8 points (Dec. 5). CBOT brown rice prices rose 63% in January-April, then fell 42%. Faced with the rare and volatile fluctuations in food prices, we naturally ask about the determinants behind them. In other words, what factors have led to sharp fluctuations in the price of food in the short term?