论文部分内容阅读
根据1900年—1969年全球大地震(M≥7)的时空图,找出与中国大陆大地震(M≥7)有关的14个相关区,利用逐步回归的方法,对这些相关区逐一鉴别,选取较优的9个,再根据这9个相关区发生的大震来预测中国大陆在未来一年内会不会有大震发生。进一步对某一个地区,例如华北地区,运用同样的方法,亦可对未来一年的地震趋势作出估计。 对1976年中国大陆和华北地区地震趋势作了估计,并得到了验证。
According to the spatiotemporal maps of the global earthquakes (M ≥ 7) from 1900 to 1969, 14 related areas related to the large earthquakes (M ≥ 7) in mainland China were found out, and the related areas were identified one by one by the stepwise regression method. Select the best nine, and then based on the nine major earthquake occurred in the relevant area to predict mainland China in the coming year there will be no major earthquake occurred. Further to a certain area, such as North China, the same method can be used to make an estimate of the earthquake trend in the coming year. The earthquakes in China and North China in 1976 are estimated and verified.