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灾害的形成、发生与发展过程具有链式规律。灾害链已经成为灾害研究的热点问题之一。草原具有灾种多、灾情重的基本特点,极易遭受灾害链的影响,目前对于草原灾害的灾害链研究并不多见。通过统计内蒙古锡林郭勒地区草原灾害的历史资料,识别了草原干旱雪灾灾害链类型,并对其形成机理进行了研究;针对因果型草原干旱雪灾灾害链,以贝叶斯网络为建模工具,建立了贝叶斯网络,实现了对因果型草原干旱雪灾灾害链发生过程的推理分析。以实例说明了草原干旱雪灾灾害链贝叶斯网络的运作过程和应用效果。根据贝叶斯网络推理结果,通过GIS空间分析技术,绘制了锡盟草原干旱雪灾灾害链综合灾害等级区划图。研究结果能为深入了解草原干旱与草原雪灾的演化途径和草原灾害的防灾减灾工作提供参考。
The formation, occurrence and development of disasters have a chain rule. Disaster chains have become one of the hot issues in disaster research. Prairie has the basic characteristics of disaster-prone, heavy disaster, vulnerable to the impact of the disaster chain, the current grass-roots disaster chain research is rare. Based on the historical data of grassland disasters in Xilinguole area of Inner Mongolia, the type of disastrous chain of grassland disastrous snow disaster was identified and its formation mechanism was studied. In view of the disastrous chain of disastrous snow disaster in causal grassland, using Bayesian network as a modeling tool, Bayesian network, to achieve the causal analysis of causal process of snow disaster disasters in the causal grassland. An example is given to illustrate the operation process and application effect of the Bayesian network in the grassland arid snow disaster. According to Bayesian network reasoning results, GIS zonal analysis technology is used to draw a zonation map of the integrated disaster level of the arid snow disaster chain in the Ximeng steppes. The results can provide a reference for further understanding of the evolutionary path of grassland drought and grassland snow disaster and the prevention and mitigation of grassland disasters.