模糊概率理论和模糊概率设计近几年已逐步渗透到机械工程领域，但在矿山机械方面还应用较少。目前，提升机主轴的疲劳强度设计均采用常规的安全系数法，这是因为人们对材料强度、载荷以及主轴尺寸的不确定性尚未充分认识，其主要表现在离散性和模糊性两方面，前者是一种概率意 Fuzzy probability theory and fuzzy probability design have gradually infiltrated into the field of mechanical engineering in recent years, but less used in mining machinery. At present, the design of the fatigue strength of the hoist spindle adopts the conventional method of safety factor because people have not fully understood the material strength, load and the uncertainty of the spindle size. The main manifestations are discreteness and fuzziness. The former Is a probability of meaning