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目的分析浙江省宁波市2011—2016年甲状腺癌报告发病情况及2002—2016年甲状腺癌死亡情况,预测未来宁波市甲状腺癌报告发病与死亡情况。方法采用宁波市2011—2016年肿瘤发病监测和2002—2016年全死因监测数据,分别计算甲状腺癌报告发病(死亡)率,年龄别报告发病(死亡)率,城乡报告发病(死亡)率和以2010年中国人口做标化的报告发病(死亡)率;应用灰色建模软件对宁波市甲状腺癌报告发病和死亡情况进行预测。结果 2011—2016年间宁波市报告甲状腺癌报告发病率为34.28/10万(标准化率29.75/10万),女性53.47/10万(标准化率46.30/10万),男性14.96/10万(标准化率13.25/10万)。城市48.55/10万(标准化率38.24/10万),农村25.06/10万(标准化率18.74/10万)。2002—2016年间甲状腺死亡率为0.43/10万(标准化率0.33/10万),女性0.49/10万(标准化率0.38/10万),男性0.37/10万(标准化率0.28/10万),城市为0.41/10万(标准化率0.31/10万),农村0.25/10万(标准化率0.27/10万)。GM(1,1)预测模型的预测报告发病率为45.93/10万,死亡率0.88/10万,Verhulst预测模型的预测报告发病率为42.51/10万,死亡率0.87/10万。结论宁波市人群甲状腺癌报告发病率远高于报告死亡率,两者均为女性高于男性,城市高于农村。死亡率总体随年龄上升而增加,80岁以后稍有下降,报告发病率先升后降,30~64岁是报告发病高峰年龄。GM(1,1)和Verhulst模型可预测甲状腺癌报告发病(死亡)率的变化趋势,为甲状腺癌的预防控制提供科学依据。
Objective To analyze the incidence of thyroid cancer in 2011-2016 in Ningbo City, Zhejiang Province, and the death of thyroid cancer from 2002 to 2016. It is predicted that thyroid cancer in Ningbo City will report morbidity and mortality in the future. Methods The monitoring data of cancer incidence in the period from 2011 to 2016 in Ningbo and the data of all causes of death from 2002 to 2016 were used to calculate the morbidity (death) rate of thyroid cancer, the incidence of morbidity (death rate) reported by age, and the incidence (death) rate reported by urban and rural residents. The morbidity (death rate) reported by the Chinese population in 2010 was standardized; gray modelling software was used to predict the morbidity and mortality of thyroid cancer in Ningbo. Results Between 2011 and 2016, the reported incidence rate of thyroid cancer in Ningbo City was 34.28 per 100,000 (standardized rate 29.75 per 100,000), female 53.47 per 100,000 (standardized rate 46.30 per 100,000), and male 14.96 per 100,000 (standardized rate 13.25 /100,000). The city is 48.55 per 100,000 (standardization rate 38.24 per 100,000), rural area is 25.06 per 100,000 (standardization rate is 18.74 per 100,000). Between 2002 and 2016, the thyroid death rate was 0.43 per 100,000 (standardized rate 0.33 per 100,000), female 0.49 per 100,000 (standardized rate 0.38 per 100,000), and male 0.37 per 100,000 (standardized rate 0.28 per 100,000). It is 0.41 per 100,000 (standardization rate 0.31 per 100,000), rural 0.25 per 100,000 (standardization rate 0.27 per 100,000). The predicted incidence of GM (1,1) prediction model was 45.93/100,000, and the mortality rate was 0.88/lakh. The Verhulst prediction model had a predicted incidence rate of 42.51/100,000 and a mortality rate of 0.87/lakh. Conclusions The reported incidence of thyroid cancer in Ningbo population is much higher than the reported mortality, both of which are higher for women than for men and higher for cities than rural areas. Mortality rates generally increase with age, and decrease slightly after age 80. The reported incidence rises first and then falls. The age of 30 to 64 years is the peak age for reporting onset. The GM (1,1) and Verhulst models can predict the trend of reported morbidity (death) rate of thyroid cancer, and provide scientific basis for the prevention and control of thyroid cancer.