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长江干线三峡库区属于水上交通高风险水域,自2003年6月高程蓄水以来,通航环境发生了重大变化。依据动态系统状态方程构建原理,研究并建立了以年度事故死亡率为转移变量的状态方程。针对三峡成库时间较短、数据量少的特点,采用小样本的最小二乘-卡尔曼滤波-最小二乘(Least square method-Kalman filtering algorithm-Least squaremethod,LKL)参数估计方法,测算系统危险程度及安全控制力度值,得到了三峡库区水上交通安全状态方程,并进行系统分析与评价。
The Three Gorges Reservoir Area of the Yangtze River Main Line belongs to the high-risk waters of water transport. Since the high-level water storage took place in June 2003, major changes have taken place in the navigation environment. According to the construction principle of dynamic system state equation, the state equation with annual accident mortality rate as the transfer variable was studied and established. Aiming at the short trip time and small amount of data of the Three Gorges Reservoir, Least Square Method - Kalman Filter-Least Square Method (LKL) parameter estimation method is used to estimate the system risk Degree and safety control of the value of the Three Gorges reservoir water traffic safety equation of state and carry out systematic analysis and evaluation.