论文部分内容阅读
“十三五”时期是我国改革开放以来经济发展的重要拐点,能源消费受到经济发展和气候、环境问题的双重约束。本文从多角度、运用多种方法预测了“十三五”时期我国的能源消费总量,同时测度了能源消费对我国经济安全的影响程度。研究表明,2020年我国能源消费总量将达到48.8亿吨标准煤,其中基于四个角度能源弹性系数、能源消费波动规律、产业结构、人均能源消费的预测值分别为48.5亿吨标准煤、46.9亿吨标准煤、49.2亿吨标准煤、50.7亿吨标准煤。2020年我国石油对外依存度将会达到67.5%,经济安全条件得分仅为25分。
The “13th Five-Year Plan” period is an important turning point in the economic development of our country since the reform and opening up. Energy consumption is subject to the dual constraints of economic development and climate and environmental issues. This article predicts the total energy consumption of China during the “Thirteen-Five-Year Plan” from various perspectives and uses various methods to measure the impact of energy consumption on China’s economic security. The research shows that the total energy consumption in China will reach 4.88 billion tons of standard coal by 2020, of which the predicted values of energy elasticity, energy consumption fluctuation, industrial structure and per capita energy consumption are 4.85 billion tons of standard coal and 46.9 4.9 billion tons of standard coal, 5.07 billion tons of standard coal. In 2020, China’s oil dependence on foreign countries will reach 67.5%, and its economic security conditions score only 25 points.