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为了研究出行者路径选择行为与信息发布的方式和出行者心理特性的关系,采用计算机仿真的方法,研究了突发事件下完全理性出行者和有限理性出行者的路径选择行为。首先提出了事故消散时间模型,对事故消散的流程进行了分析,建立了事故消散时间与进入路段的驾驶人流量之间的关系模型;然后对机动车出行者进行分类,将出行者分为完全理性出行者和有限理性出行者,提出了不同类型驾驶人路径选择的方法;进一步针对不同类型驾驶人,分析了出行者路径选择结果与进入路段的流量、出行者理性程度、非理性出行者的比例之间的关系。通过不断为出行者提供事故消散时间信息,研究不同时刻进入系统的驾驶人路径选择规律,直到事故消散。研究结果表明:信息发布更新越快,完全理性出行者所占比例越小,则事故消散时间也越短;事故消散时间与出行者对预测信息的依赖程度无关;理性出行者所占比例越大,事故道路上出现有限理性出行者所需的时间越长,道路上交通流变化幅度越小;道路恢复正常前,各路段的流量均经过较大幅度的变化。
In order to study the relationship between the path selection behavior of travelers and the information dissemination mode and the psychological characteristics of travelers, a computer simulation method is used to study the path selection behavior of completely rational travelers and boundedly rational travelers under emergent events. First, the model of accident dissipated time is put forward, and the process of dissipating the accident is analyzed. The relationship model between the dissipative time of the accident and the traffic flow of the driver entering the road section is established. Then, the traveling passengers are classified and the travelers are classified as complete Rational travelers and bounded-rational travelers, a method of different types of drivers’ route selection is put forward. For different types of drivers, the result of the route selection of the drivers and the flow of the entering road sections, the rational degree of travelers, The relationship between the proportions. By continuously providing travelers with information about the time of the accidental dissipation, the law of path selection of drivers entering the system at different times is studied until the accident dissipates. The results show that the faster the update of information is, the smaller the proportion of completely rational travelers is, and the shorter the time of accidental dissipation is. The time of casualties is not related to the dependence of travelers on the forecast information. The larger the proportion of rational travelers , The longer time it takes for a bounded rationality traveler to appear on the accident road, the smaller the change range of traffic flow on the road; the more the traffic of each section changes greatly before the road resumes normal.