最近,主要根据美国资料进行了几项研究,研究结果表明:因为能源只是整个经济的一小部分,能源价格上涨不应对工业国家长期的经济发展产生很大影响,而且当能源价格上涨时,似乎尚有较大的余地可以用其他的资源来代替它。鉴于1972年美国主要能源费用占国民生产总值的2.4%,1975年也仅占5.2%,就是普通方案假定能源费用再增加一倍,这在国民生产总值中占10%。有人声称,对宏观经济最大限度的影响可能会使国民生产总值下降5%, Recently, several studies have been conducted mainly on the basis of the U.S. data. The results show that as energy is only a small part of the economy as a whole, the rise in energy prices should not have a significant impact on the long-term economic development of industrialized countries. When energy prices rise, it seems There is still plenty of room to replace it with other resources. Since major energy costs accounted for 2.4% of GNP in 1972 and only 5.2% in 1975, the common scenario assumes an additional doubling of energy costs, accounting for 10% of GNP. Some claim that the maximum impact on the macroeconomy may result in a 5% decline in gross national product,