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为解决航班审批与空管单位运行能力动态匹配的问题,在对空管单位运行过程进行系统分析的基础上,基于“成长与投资不足”系统基模,建立了空管单位安全与发展的动力学模型。通过检验后,利用该模型分别对传统发展、高速发展和协调发展3种模式进行仿真。结果表明:在高速发展模式下,短期内空管单位管制保障架次增长较快,但空管单位运行能力增长不足,在某一时刻管制架次会急剧降低;而在传统发展模式下,管制保障架次增长缓慢,发展后劲不足;在协调发展模式下,通过提高安全投入水平,可以使空管单位运行能力增长,不安全状况保持较好水平,空管单位能够实现持续安全发展。
In order to solve the problem of dynamic matching between flight approval and air traffic control unit operation ability, based on the systematic analysis of air traffic control unit operation process, based on the system model of “growth and underinvestment”, the establishment of ATC safety and development Kinetic model. After the test, the model is used to simulate the three modes of traditional development, rapid development and coordinated development respectively. The results show that in the high-speed development mode, the short-term increase of control and protection of the ATC units is rapid, but the capacity of the ATC units is not enough to increase at a certain moment and the number of the management stages will decrease drastically. In the traditional development mode, Slow growth and lack of development potential. Under the mode of coordinated development, by increasing the level of safety investment, the operating capacity of air traffic control units can be increased, the unsafe conditions can be maintained at a good level and air traffic control units can achieve sustainable and safe development.