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目的通过对成都等5市一次洪水事件和细菌性痢疾(菌痢)关联性及滞后效应分析,为洪水事件后菌痢的防控提供更加具体化的策略和措施。方法根据洪水事件的特点选取暴露期、对照期和滞后期,整理暴露期和对照期疾病数据进行统计学分析并计算相对危险度(RR)、归因危险度(AR)以评估洪水事件与菌痢的关系;计算滞后期与对照期洪水事件对菌痢的相对危险度(RR)以确定最佳滞后期。结果达州、广安两地暴露期菌痢罹患率明显高于对照期(P<0.05);乐山、雅安、成都三地滞后期菌痢罹患率明显高于对照期(P<0.05)。结论洪水事件与菌痢的发生呈正相关,成都等5市有4个不同的最佳滞后期,提示我们针对不同的洪水事件发生地、不同最佳滞后期应采取不同的干预措施。
Objective To provide more specific strategies and measures for prevention and control of bacillary dysentery after flood events by analyzing the correlation and lag effect of a flood event and bacillary dysentery (bacillary dysentery) in five cities such as Chengdu. Methods According to the characteristics of flood events, the exposure period, control period and lag period were selected, and the data of disease during the exposure and control periods were collected for statistical analysis. Relative risk (RR) and attributable risk (AR) Dysentery; calculate the relative risk (RR) of dysentery for lag phase and flood season in control period to determine the best lag period. Results The incidence of bacillary dysentery in Dazhou and Guang’an was significantly higher than that in control (P <0.05). The incidence of bacillary dysentery in lag phase in Leshan, Ya’an and Chengdu was significantly higher than that in control (P <0.05). Conclusions There is a positive correlation between flood events and the incidence of bacillary dysentery. There are 4 different optimal lag periods in 5 cities such as Chengdu, suggesting that different interventions should be taken for different flood events and different optimal lag periods.