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俄罗斯油气资源潜力巨大,开采前景乐观。中俄油气合作的基础是供需互补潜力,不过,国际油气行情持续升温使两国合作的条件发生变化,合作目标和利益取向分歧扩大,合作出现阶段性徘徊。通过对中俄油气合作状况的分析可以大致确定至2020年前两国合作可能达到的规模和权重,这可以作为把握两国中期(至2020年)合作前景的重要尺度。从发展过程看,两国油气合作在经历“酝酿”和“启动”两个阶段后已经进入第三阶段,反映两国阶段性合作规模和权重比从零起步逐渐扩展到的实际进程。两国在现阶段的油气合作更具务实性,对此,中国应该积极借助新的有利条件推动合作的发展,争取双赢结果,确保自身能源安全。
Russian oil and gas resources have great potential and mining prospect is optimistic. The basis for the Sino-Russian oil and gas cooperation is the potential of complementary supply and demand. However, the continuous warming of international oil and gas prices has changed the conditions for cooperation between the two countries. Differences in cooperation objectives and interests have widened, and cooperation has been hovering in stages. By analyzing the status of Sino-Russian oil and gas cooperation, the possible scale and weight of cooperation between the two countries can be roughly determined by 2020, which can serve as an important measure to grasp the prospect of cooperation between the two countries in the medium term (2020). Judging from the development process, the oil and gas cooperation between the two countries has entered the third stage after experiencing two stages of “brewing” and “starting up”, reflecting the fact that the scale and weight ratio of phased cooperation between the two countries gradually expanded from scratch process. At this stage, the oil and gas cooperation between the two countries is more pragmatic. To this end, China should actively promote the development of cooperation through new favorable conditions and strive for win-win results to ensure its own energy security.