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洪水预报模型中,模型误差的提取和修正决定了预报的精度。根据卡尔曼滤波增益矩阵体现误差空间分布的特性,在河道洪水校正模型中,利用滤波增益信息反映校正模型的误差分布。选择长江上游干流寸滩至万县河段为例,以增益信息的变化情况为导向,考察河道地形突变所引起的模型误差,通过修正由过水断面突变引起的局部动量损失,提高原有模型的模拟效果,进而达到修正误差,提高预报精度的作用。
In flood forecasting model, the accuracy of prediction is determined by the extraction and correction of model errors. According to the characteristics of Kalman filter gain matrix embodying the spatial distribution of error, the error distribution of the correction model is reflected by the information of filter gain in the channel flood correction model. Taking Qianwei to Wanxian reach of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River as an example, the variation of the gain information is taken as a guideline to investigate the model error caused by the terrain abrupt change of the river course. The local momentum loss caused by the abrupt change of the water crossing section is improved and the original model is improved The simulation results, and then to amend the error and improve the accuracy of the role.