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目的探索不同空间插值方法在人群包虫病患病率预测中的应用并比较其效果。方法以四川、西藏、甘肃和青海四省(区)青藏高原地区2012年全国包虫病流行情况调查获得的124个藏区县的人群包虫病患病率数据为基础,使用Arcgis10.0软件,采用局部多项式插值法、反距离权重插值法和kriging插值法进行空间插值,比较青海省治多县和玛多县人群包虫病患病率推算的效果。结果 3种方法预测的精度各有优势,对青海省治多县和玛多县人群包虫病患病率误差最小的为Kriging插值方法,预测的患病率分别为2.04%和5.28%。结论空间插值方法可用于青海省治多县和玛多县人群包虫病患病率预测,以Kriging插值法的预测效果较好。
Objective To explore the application of different spatial interpolation methods in predicting the prevalence of hydatid disease among people and to compare their effects. Methods Based on the prevalence of hydatid disease in 124 Tibetan counties in 2012 in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of Sichuan, Tibet, Gansu and Qinghai provinces from 2012 to 2012, using Arcgis 10.0 software , The local polynomial interpolation method, inverse distance weighted interpolation method and kriging interpolation method were used for spatial interpolation to compare the effect of hydatid disease prevalence estimation in Zhiduo County and Maduo County of Qinghai Province. Results The accuracies of the three methods were all excellent. Kriging method was used to estimate the lowest echinococcosis prevalence in Zhiduo County and Maduo County of Qinghai Province. The predicted prevalences were 2.04% and 5.28% respectively. Conclusion Spatial interpolation method can be used to predict the prevalence of hydatid disease among people in Zhiduo County and Maduo County of Qinghai Province. The Kriging interpolation method has a good prediction effect.