论文部分内容阅读
为了提高无社会保障老年人的生活水平,北京市从2008年起为无社会保障老年人每月发放200元福利养老金。为了给政府制定相关政策及合理安排预算资金提供依据,本文主要根据2007年的调查数据,运用序列模型和寿险精算方法对北京市在2008-2017年每年的城镇无社会保障老人数量和所需福利养老金发放金额进行预测,预测结果显示每年发放人数和支出金额呈现逐年下降趋势,分别约为10万人和2.45亿元。文章最后根据测算结果提出了相应的政策建议。
In order to raise the standard of living of the elderly without social security, Beijing Municipality has granted a monthly pension of 200 yuan for the elderly without social security since 2008. In order to provide the basis for the government to formulate the relevant policies and arrange the budget funds rationally, based on the survey data in 2007 and using the sequence model and actuarial method, this paper analyzes the annual number and welfare of urban elderly without social security in Beijing from 2008 to 2017 The forecast of the amount of pensions released shows that the annual number of payments and the amount of expenditures are declining year by year, reaching about 100,000 and 245 million respectively. Finally, the article puts forward the corresponding policy suggestions according to the calculation results.