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经济衰退时,股票市场比公司利润下降的更快,股票市场的贴现率上升。雇主的各种投资(包括增加就业岗位)下降。根据主流失业理论搜寻一匹配模型(DMP),雇主创造就业岗位动机的减弱导致劳动力市场萧条和失业增加。当增加就业岗位可使雇主获得额外剩余时,雇主才会增加对就业岗位的投资,而贴现率上升会导致剩余价值下降,因此,高贴现率会导致高失业率。本文没有对为什么衰退经济中贴现率高进行过多解释,而是证明了经济衰退时期贴现率上升,股市大幅下滑,使得失业率上升的解释更为合理。
In a recession, the stock market declines faster than corporate profits, and the discount rate on the stock market rises. Various types of employer investments (including job creation) have declined. Searching for a match model (DMP) based on the mainstream unemployment theory, the weakness in employers' motivation to create jobs led to a depressed labor market and an increase in unemployment. Employers increase their investment in jobs when they increase their employers' extra surplus, while higher discount rates lead to lower residual values. As a result, high discount rates lead to high unemployment rates. This paper does not explain too much about the high discount rate in a recessionary economy. Instead, it proves that the explanation of the rise of the discount rate in the economic recession and the sharp decline of the stock market makes the unemployment rate more reasonable.