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基于难民效应假说和企业家效应假说的创业影响就业的理论,缺乏微观行为基础,因而不能很好地揭示创业影响就业的机制和动态效应。本文从创业的技术创新和市场创新切入,基于一个扩展的古诺模型,同时考虑创新扩散和附加市场成长过程,刻画出了创业影响就业的机制和动态效应。在一定参数条件下,模型的结果可模拟出近年来系列经验研究所发现的一个规律性现象:创业在早期会带动就业,在中期不能显著带动就业甚至可能破坏就业,在后期通常又会带动就业,到最后创业的就业效应逐渐消失。本文模型对既有现象提供了可能的解释,同时对于我国当前的“创业带动就业”工作具有一定的政策含义。
The theory of entrepreneurial impact on employment based on the refugee effect hypothesis and the entrepreneurial effect hypothesis lacks the foundation of micro-behavior and therefore cannot reveal the mechanism and dynamic effects of entrepreneurial employment. This paper starts with the technological innovation and market innovation of entrepreneurship, based on an extended Cournot model, taking into account the process of innovation diffusion and additional market growth, and portrays the mechanism and dynamic effects of entrepreneurial influence on employment. Under certain conditions, the results of the model can simulate a regular phenomenon discovered by the series of empirical studies in recent years: Entrepreneurship will lead to employment in the early stages, and in the medium term, it will not significantly promote employment and may even destroy employment. In the later period, it will usually drive employment. As a result, the employment effect of the last venture has gradually disappeared. This model provides a possible explanation for the existing phenomenon, and at the same time has certain policy implications for China’s current “enterprise-led employment” work.