论文部分内容阅读
气候变化与人类活动对水循环及水资源安全的影响是近代水科学面临的主要科学问题。以西辽河支流老哈河流域为研究区,探索了一种水文模型耦合方法(SWAT-WEAP),以水短缺量为指标,同等考虑水资源供给端与需求端,对气候变化与不同人类利用情景下水资源系统脆弱性进行定量分析,结果表明:①暖干化气候情景比暖湿化气候情景明显加剧了老哈河流域水资源系统的脆弱性,降水减少10%导致的水短缺量比降水导致10%所缓解的短缺量要多31.17%;②气候变化对流域农业灌溉用水影响最大,对城乡生活用水和工业用水影响相对很小;③老哈河流域水资源系统脆弱性的主要驱动力之一源自农业不合理灌溉,发展畜牧业、改变种植结构与高效节水灌溉是缓解水短缺、降低水资源系统脆弱性最为有效的措施,也是应对气候变化最为有效的方式;④基于供水端的措施(如水库)在暖干化气候时由于水资源供给来源受限,其缓解作用有所减弱。
The impacts of climate change and human activities on water cycle and water resources safety are the major scientific problems facing modern water science. Taking the Laoxha River basin, a tributary of the West Liaohe River as a research area, a SWAT-WEAP method was explored. Taking the shortage of water as an indicator, the supply and demand sides of water resources were considered equally. The climate change and different human use scenarios The results show that: (1) The warm and dry climate scenario is obviously worse than the warm and wet climate scenario, and the vulnerability of the water resources system in the Laohe Basin is significantly aggravated. The shortage of water caused by 10% 10.17% and 31.17% respectively; ②Climatic change has the greatest impact on agricultural irrigation water in the basin, and has relatively little impact on urban and rural domestic and industrial water use; ③ The main driving force of the vulnerability of water resources system in the Laohe River Basin First, it is the most effective measure to alleviate water shortage and reduce the vulnerability of water resources system, which is caused by the irrational irrigation in agriculture, the development of animal husbandry, the change of planting structure and water-saving irrigation. It is also the most effective way to deal with climate change. ④ Based on the measures of water supply end (Such as reservoirs) in the warm and dry climate due to limited sources of water supply, its mitigation has weakened.