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根据1986—2007年江苏省8个主要农业气象观测站水稻观测资料、常规气象观测资料,分析了典型高温年份(2003年)副热带高压异常偏强偏南的环流特征、副热带高压异常与前期的太平洋海温异常的可能关系以及水稻生长关键期对异常高温的生理响应,并将西太平洋海温作为因子,与江苏省淮北、江淮、苏南3个地区的高温热害指标进行了场相关分析.结果表明:淮北、江淮、苏南3个地区的水稻高温热害指标与西太平洋海温存在共同的高相关区,即Nino区、西太平洋北部地区及西太平洋暖池区,但3个地区的相关程度及其随时间的变化趋势不甚相同;对高相关海区的温度进行最优化相关处理,提高了预测因子的相关合理性;在淮北、江淮、苏南3个地区建立的水稻高温热害预测模型的模拟结果均达极显著水平(P<0.01).
Based on the data of rice observation and conventional meteorological observation from 8 major agricultural meteorological stations in Jiangsu province from 1986 to 2007 and conventional meteorological observation data, the characteristics of the circulation over the south of the subtropical high are analyzed. The anomalies of the subtropical high are similar to those of the previous Pacific Ocean The possible relationship of SST anomaly, and the physiological response to abnormally high temperature during the critical period of rice growth. Field-correlation analysis was also conducted using the SSTA as a factor and the high-temperature thermal damage indicators in three areas of Jiangsu Province, including Huaibei, Jianghuai and Sunan. The results showed that there were common high correlations between rice high temperature thermal damage index and the SST in the three areas of Huaibei, Jianghuai and Sunan, namely, Nino area, northern western Pacific Ocean and western Pacific warm pool area. However, Related degree and its trend with time is not quite the same; the correlation of the sea temperature in the high correlation area is optimized and the related rationality of the forecasting factor is improved; in the areas of Huaibei, Jianghuai and Sunan, The simulation results of the prediction model reached the extremely significant level (P <0.01).