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为了比较多个系统在不同时刻的发展水平和某一段时间的动态累积水平,需要进行动态评价.传统灰靶理论方法无法比较多个系统在某一时间段各个时刻和总体的发展水平,只考虑各评价指标值的差异程度(现状),不考虑指标值增长程度.将二维数据加入时序数据扩展为三维数据,提出基于灰靶理论的动态评价方法,该方法既可以得到各评价对象(方案)好坏程度的评价值及排序结果,也可以得到各评价对象(方案)增长程度的评价值及排序结果,还可以得到同时考虑各评价对象指标值差异程度和增长程度的综合评价值.既可以得到各评价对象(方案)各时刻的综合评价值及排序,也可以得到各评价对象在某个时间段内总体的评价值和排序结果.基于靶心度可以进行模式识别、分级和选优.基于贡献度分析,可以分析各指标对模式靶心度的影响程度,从而找到关键影响因素.最后用一个实例说明本研究实际应用上的有效性.该方法给动态评价提供了思路,是综合评价方法研究的有益补充,可以利用该方法进行应用研究.
In order to compare the level of dynamic accumulation of multiple systems at different times and for a certain period of time, dynamic evaluation is needed.Traditional gray-target theory can not compare the development of multiple systems at different times and overall level in a certain period of time, The difference between each index value (status quo), regardless of the degree of index value growth.Expanded the two-dimensional data into the three-dimensional data by adding time series data, and put forward the dynamic evaluation method based on gray target theory, which can get the evaluation object ), The evaluation value and the ranking result of the growth degree of each evaluation object (plan) can also be obtained, and the comprehensive evaluation value that simultaneously considers the degree of difference and the growth degree of each evaluation target index value can be obtained. The comprehensive evaluation values and the rankings of each evaluation object (plan) at each moment can be obtained, and the overall evaluation values and sorting results of each evaluation object in a certain time period can also be obtained, and pattern recognition, classification and selection based on the target centering degree can be performed. Based on the contribution analysis, we can analyze the impact of each index on the target bull’s eye degree and find out the key influencing factors. One example of this study demonstrate the effectiveness of the practical application. This method provides a guideline for dynamic evaluation is a useful complement to the comprehensive evaluation research, applied research can be carried out using this method.