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劳动力供给是经济增长的重要源泉之一。文章将劳动力供给因素分解为总人口规模、劳动年龄人口比重和劳动参与率的乘积,并纳入柯布—道格拉斯生产函数中,在理论模型推导的基础上,利用中国1978~2015年的时间序列数据进行分析,发现:(1)长期以来我国劳动力供给因素对经济增长有显著正向作用,其影响程度和对经济增长的贡献度明显小于物质资本,但远高于人力资本的影响和贡献;(2)构成劳动力供给规模的3个组成要素均对我国经济增长产生显著的同方向影响,三者的产出弹性和贡献度按照大小依次为:总人口规模、劳动年龄人口比重和劳动参与率;(3)近年来劳动年龄人口比重下降对经济增长产生抑制作用,但在一定程度上被总人口规模增加的正向作用所抵消。
Labor supply is one of the important sources of economic growth. The article divides the labor supply factor into the product of the total population, the proportion of the working-age population and the labor participation rate, and integrates it into the Cobb-Douglas production function. Based on the theoretical model, using the time series data from 1978 to 2015 (1) For a long time, the labor supply factor in our country has a significant positive effect on economic growth, and the degree of its influence and contribution to economic growth are significantly less than the material capital, but much higher than the impact and contribution of human capital; 2) The three components that make up the scale of labor supply all have significant same direction influence on our country's economic growth. The output flexibility and contribution of the three are in order of total population size, working-age population proportion and labor participation rate; (3) The decline in the proportion of the working-age population in recent years has had an inhibitory effect on economic growth but is offset to some extent by the positive effect of an increase in the total population.