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目的评估2014年7月我国(不包括香港、澳门和台湾地区)突发公共卫生事件及需要关注的传染病风险。方法根据全国突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种监测资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,以视频会议形式邀请全国各省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果根据近期传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,结合既往突发公共卫生事件发生情况及传染病流行特点分析,预计7月全国突发公共卫生事件会较6月有所下降。报告事件将以手足口病、水痘、流行性感冒、流行性腮腺炎、布鲁氏菌病、登革热等传染病为主,其次为食物中毒事件;近期,多地发生登革热输入病例,广东部分地区出现了本地感染病例,预计未来3~4个月将迎来登革热发病高峰;近期毒蘑菇引起的食物中毒事件明显增加,暑期因集体聚餐引发的食物中毒也将有所增加,同时应加强霍乱、伤寒等肠道传染病的防控工作;人感染H7N9禽流感仍将维持在较低水平;中东呼吸综合征存在输入病例的风险,但发生大规模疫情的可能性较低;西非埃博拉病毒病疫情近期有所上升,但传入我国的风险仍为低,输入病例导致该病在我国本土化和大范围播散的可能性极低。结论 2014年7月我国的突发公共卫生事件及传染病疫情发生态势与往年相似,事件数将下降;需重点关注我国霍乱、登革热及基孔肯雅热、食物中毒,同时关注中东呼吸综合征及西非埃博拉病毒病疫情输入我国的风险。
Objective To assess the public health emergencies in China (excluding Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan) and the risks of infectious diseases requiring attention in July 2014. Methods According to the national public health emergencies reports and key communicable disease surveillance and other monitoring information and departmental briefing information, experts were invited to participate in the appraisal by using expert consultation method and video conferencing to invite CDC experts from all provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) across the country. Results According to the monitoring data of recent infectious diseases and public health emergencies, combined with the past public health emergencies and the epidemiological characteristics of infectious diseases, the national public health emergency in July is expected to decline from that in June. The reported incidents will be mainly hand-foot-mouth disease, chickenpox, influenza, mumps, brucellosis and dengue and other infectious diseases, followed by food poisoning incidents; recent cases of imported dengue occurred more frequently in parts of Guangdong There is a local case of infection, the next 3 to 4 months is expected to usher in the peak incidence of dengue fever; poisoning mushrooms recently caused a significant increase in food poisoning, summer food poisoning caused by the collective dinner will also increase, while strengthening the cholera, Typhoid and other intestinal infectious diseases prevention and control work; people infected with H7N9 bird flu will remain at a low level; Middle East respiratory syndrome, there is the risk of imported cases, but the possibility of large-scale outbreaks lower; Ebola virus of West Africa The recent outbreak of the disease has risen, but the risk of transmission to our country is still low. The incidence of this disease is extremely unlikely to be localized and widespread in our country. Conclusion The epidemic situation of public health emergencies and infectious diseases in our country was similar to that in previous years in July 2014, and the number of incidents will decrease. We should pay more attention to cholera, dengue fever and chikungunya in our country, food poisoning, and pay more attention to Middle East Respiratory Syndrome And the risk of Ebola virus disease epidemic entering our country in West Africa.