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首先,运用TOPSIS综合评价法计算出2011—2014年青海省环境污染综合指数。其次,以标准化后的人均GDP作为自变量,以环境污染指数作为因变量,建立EKC经验方程并进行回归分析,发现EKC经验模型忽略了经济增长和环境质量间的双向影响机制,从而导致了内生变量偏差问题。然后,利用向量自回归VAR模型对青海省经济增长与环境污染之间的相互关系进行分析研究,结果表明,青海省经济增长对环境污染的影响程度呈上升态势。再次,运用环境—经济协调度评价模型,定量分析评价环境经济系统协调度,并与相邻省份甘肃和陕西对比,发现青海省虽然协调度最弱,但协调发展度相对较好。最后,分析提出青海省促进经济环境系统协调发展的对策建议。
First, using TOPSIS comprehensive evaluation method to calculate 2011-2014 Qinghai Province, the comprehensive index of environmental pollution. Secondly, using the standardized GDP per capita as the independent variable and the environmental pollution index as the dependent variable, the EKC empirical equation is established and the regression analysis is conducted. It is found that the EKC empirical model ignores the two-way impact mechanism between economic growth and environmental quality, Bias deviation problem. Then, using the vector autoregressive VAR model to analyze the relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution in Qinghai Province, the results show that the impact of economic growth on environmental pollution in Qinghai Province is on the rise. Thirdly, using the environment-economic coordination evaluation model to quantitatively evaluate the coordination degree of environmental economic system, comparing with the neighboring provinces of Gansu and Shaanxi, we found that although the coordination degree is the weakest in Qinghai Province, the coordinated development degree is relatively good. Finally, the author puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions on how to promote the coordinated development of economy and environment in Qinghai Province.