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我们开设的林业经济管理专题讲座又与读者见面了,这次我们选择了系统动力学作为专题讲座的内容。这不仅是因为系统动力学是一门新的学科,而且还因为它在研究林业系统时具有独特的优势。对于这点,随着讲座内容的展开,读者便不难体会到,系统动力是本世纪50年代后期发展起来的一门新兴边缘学科,它是系统科学的一个分支,它基于系统论,吸取了控制论、信息论的精髓,是处理信息反馈系统动态行为的方法论。进入80年代后,这一学科在理论和应用方面都取得了飞跃性发展,其应用几乎遍及各类系统,各个领域。系统动力学在林业上应用潜力也很大,它可以进行林业政策的分析和评估;预测森林资源前景,选择对策;帮助制定林业长远发展规划,特别适于林业及其基层林场制定经营方案。撰写这一讲座的几位同志,前不久用系统动力学的方法建立了第一个中国森林资源动态模型,他们进引了9类14种政策试验,对林业宏观政策的制定有重要的参考价值。他们建立的 SD.模型具有国内领先水平,为林业决策的科学化开拓了新路。现在我们介绍这一内容,目的就在于为广大林业工作者提供一种科学的、有效的工具,使林业工作建立在科学的基础上,促进我国林业现代化的不断发展。
We opened the seminar on forestry economics and management also met with the reader, this time we chose the system dynamics as the content of the seminar. This is not only because system dynamics is a new discipline, but also because it has unique advantages in the study of forestry systems. To this end, as the content of the lecture unfolds, readers will find it hard to understand that the system power is an emerging edge subject developed in the late 1950s. It is a branch of system science based on system theory and absorbs Cybernetics, the essence of information theory, is to deal with the dynamic behavior of information feedback system methodology. After entering the 80's, this discipline has made leaps and bounds in both theory and application, and its application has been applied to almost all kinds of systems and fields. System dynamics has great potential in forestry application. It can analyze and evaluate forestry policies, predict forest resource prospects and choose strategies, and help develop forestry long-term development plans, especially for forestry and grassroots forest farms. Several comrades who wrote this talk recently established the first dynamic model of forest resources in China by using system dynamics. They have led to nine types of 14 policy experiments, which have important reference value for the formulation of forestry macro-policy . The SD model they established has the leading domestic level and opens up a new path for the scientific decision-making of forestry. Now that we introduce this content, the purpose is to provide the majority of foresters with a scientific and effective tool so that forestry work will be based on science and will promote the continuous development of forestry modernization in our country.