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当前,我国环境污染与资源紧缺问题不断加剧,随着分布式发电技术水平的不断提高,清洁能源分布式发电将是未来电力市场的发展方向之一,而影响用户侧分布式电源实施的重要因素为用户侧的经济性。为此,文章从分布式发电全寿命周期的角度给出用户侧经济性评估方法。首先,针对分布式发电并网的运行特点,对用户侧全寿命周期3个阶段的成本收益项进行全面梳理,提出各项指标的计算模型。其次,基于项目全寿命周期现金流计算利润净现值、投资回收期和内部收益率这3个指标值。最后,针对装机成本、燃料费用和售电收入这3个不确定性因素对项目净现值的影响进行敏感性分析,分析结果给出了在分布式电源并网的情况下,用户侧实现经济效益最大化应采取的措施。通过分析结果可以看出,对项目净现值影响最大的因素是年售电收入,其次是燃料费用,第三是装机成本,项目要想取得更大的收益,需要扩大其售电市场、提高发电效率,降低燃料费用。
At present, the problem of environmental pollution and shortage of resources in our country is aggravating day by day. With the continuous improvement of distributed power generation technology, distributed power generation by clean energy will be one of the future directions for the development of power market. The important factors affecting the implementation of distributed power For the user side of the economy. Therefore, the article gives the user-side economic evaluation method from the perspective of the whole life cycle of distributed generation. First of all, according to the operational characteristics of distributed generation and grid connection, the paper analyzes the cost-benefit items of the three phases of the user-side life cycle and puts forward the calculation models of each index. Second, based on the project life-cycle cash flow to calculate the net present value of profits, investment recovery period and internal rate of return of these three indicators. Finally, sensitivity analysis is made on the impact of three uncertain factors such as installed cost, fuel cost and sales revenue on the net present value of the project. The analysis results show that in the case of grid-connected distributed generation, To maximize the benefits should be taken. Through the analysis of the results, we can see that the most influential factor on the net present value of the project is the annual sales revenue, followed by the fuel cost, the third is the installed cost and the project needs to enlarge the sales power market to increase Power generation efficiency, reduce fuel costs.