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在对棉花贸易中虚拟土地资源进口现状研究的基础上,利用1992—2013年的时间序列数据,对影响棉花贸易中虚拟土地资源进口的长期均衡和短期调整因素进行研究。结果表明,棉花播种面积、棉花进口价格、国内棉花需求量和国内棉花供给量与棉花贸易中虚拟土地资源进口量之间存在长期均衡关系;棉花进口价格、国内棉花需求量和国内棉花供给是导致棉花贸易中虚拟土地资源进口量短期波动的主要因素,且短期内虚拟土地资源进口量偏离长期均衡时,虚拟土地资源进口量以55.5%的调整力度进行调整。
Based on the research on the present status of the import of virtual land resources in the cotton trade, the paper uses the time series data from 1992 to 2013 to study the long-term equilibrium and short-term adjustment factors that affect the imports of virtual land resources in cotton trade. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between sown area of cotton, import price of cotton, demand of domestic cotton and the supply of domestic cotton and imports of virtual land resources in the cotton trade; import prices of cotton, domestic cotton demand and domestic cotton supply In the short term, the import volume of virtual land resources fluctuates short-term and the import volume of virtual land resources deviates from long-term equilibrium. The import volume of virtual land resources is adjusted with a 55.5% adjustment.