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近些年,国外根据噬菌体量和台风出现频率来予测水稻白叶枯病的发生流行十分成功,我国东南沿海稻区的情况与之相似。在我国内地稻区,菌量、气象条件、品种抗性、淹水等对白叶枯病较为密切,各地作出一些单回归的予测模式,但在应用中常受各因素的改变,而且各因素于不同年份并非同等重要,往往会影响予测的准确性。因此,使用多元回归予测方法,将四川省彭县历年白叶枯病的观测资料整理如下。
In recent years, the prevalence of bacterial blight based on the phage quantity and the frequency of typhoons in foreign countries has been very successful. The situation of paddy rice in southeast China is similar. In China’s inland rice area, the amount of bacteria, meteorological conditions, variety resistance, flooding and other bacterial blight is more closely, all over to make some single regression model, but in the application of various factors often change, and the various factors in Different years are not equally important and often affect the accuracy of the test. Therefore, using the multiple regression prediction method, the observation data of bacterial blight over the years in Pengxian, Sichuan Province, are summarized as follows.