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就当前全球经济形势而言,三大趋势尤为明显:经济增长乏力(以新兴经济体最为显著)、汇率大幅波动、大宗商品价格大幅下降。国际清算银行行长杰米.卡如纳(Jaime Caruana)在其报告中指出,上述状况绝非一次性冲击,而是经济与金融力量深刻调整的必然结果。全球流动性周期调整,即:美元海外债务的消长变化,或将有助于解释新兴市场经济体增速放缓、美元升值及石油过剩等诸多问题。
In terms of the current global economic situation, the three major trends are particularly pronounced: weak economic growth (most pronounced in emerging economies), sharp fluctuations in exchange rates and sharp declines in commodity prices. In its report, Bank for International Settlements President Jaime Caruana said the above situation is by no means a one-time impact but a corollary of the profound readjustment of economic and financial power. The global liquidity cycle, that is, changes in the growth and decline of the U.S. dollar’s foreign debt, will help explain the slowdown in emerging market economies, the appreciation of the U.S. dollar and oil surpluses.