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[目的]分析河南省1985～2009年胃癌死亡率变化趋势,预测2010～2019年胃癌死亡率。[方法]从河南省癌症及生命统计中心数据库中抽取1985～2009年死于胃癌的全部记录,并与相应的人口数据连接。计算各时期死亡率、中国人口标化死亡率(中标率)及世界人口标化死亡率(世标率),运用Joinpoint模型估计死亡率的时间变化趋势。采用莱斯利矩阵(LeslieMatrix)分性别预测2010～2019年人口数据;运用APC(age-period-cohort)模型预测2010～2019年河南省居民胃癌死亡率。[结果]1985～2009年河南省死于胃癌总人数为72238人。男性中标率由1985～1989年的40.16/10万下降至2005～2009年的23.96/10万;女性中标率由18.38/10万下降至10.91/10万。男、女性胃癌中标率均呈逐年下降趋势,男、女性模型趋势均有1个有意义的联结点。模型预测结果显示,2010～2019年河南省人口数平均增长率为4.38‰,2019年河南省15个市县总人口数将达到1487万。2010～2014年男性中标率为23.67/10万,女性中标率为10.33/10万。2015～2019年男性中标率为21.11/10万,女性中标率为9.56/10万。[结论]2010～2019年河南省居民胃癌死亡率呈下降趋势,但其死亡率仍较高,应继续开展以二级预防为主的预防控制策略。
[Objective] To analyze the trend of gastric cancer mortality in Henan Province from 1985 to 2009 and predict the mortality of gastric cancer from 2010 to 2019. [Method] All records of patients who died of gastric cancer from 1985 to 2009 were collected from the database of Henan Cancer and Life Statistics Center and connected with the corresponding population data. Calculate the mortality rate of each period, China’s standardized mortality rate (the winning rate) and the world’s demographic standardization rate (World standard rate), using the Joinpoint model to estimate the trend of mortality trends. We used Leslie Matrix to predict the population from 2010 to 2019 by gender and the APC (age-period-cohort) model to predict the mortality of gastric cancer in Henan province from 2010 to 2019. [Results] The total number of gastric cancer patients in Henan Province from 1985 to 2009 was 72,238. The winning rate of male fell from 40.16 / 100000 in 1985 ~ 1989 to 23.96 / 100000 in 2005 ~ 2009; the female successful rate decreased from 18.38 / 100000 to 10.91 / 100000. The successful rates of gastric cancer in both men and women showed a declining trend year by year, and there was a significant connection point between the trend of male and female models. The model predictions show that the average annual growth rate of population in Henan Province from 2010 to 2019 is 4.38 ‰, and the total population of 15 cities and counties in Henan Province in 2019 will reach 14.87 million. From 2010 to 2014, the successful rate of men was 23.67 / lakh and that of women was 10.33 / lakh. From 2015 to 2019, the successful rate of men was 21.11 / 100,000, and the winning rate of women was 9.56 / 100,000. [Conclusion] The mortality rate of gastric cancer in Henan Province from 2010 to 2019 shows a decreasing trend, but the mortality rate is still high. Prevention and control strategies based on secondary prevention should be continued.