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风险区划图不仅是有关部门根据不同灾区特征安排抗旱预防工作的基础,也是保险公司制定适合当地保险产品的依据,但是目前的制作方法多种多样,在同一地区往往采用不同的制作方法,风险的区划结果也不尽相同,因此给决策者带来了一定的困难。采用最常用的层次分析法和较新的灾损率法分别对安徽省小麦旱灾风险进行了评估,并制作了风险区划图。通过欧氏距离法将两幅图与旱灾实际分布情况进行了比较,发现层次分析法因构造判断矩阵时存在主观性,结果偏离实际情况较大,而灾损率法因排除了人为因素的影响,结果更加接近实际情况。
The risk zoning map is not only the basis for relevant departments to arrange drought prevention work based on the characteristics of different disaster-affected areas, but also the basis for insurance companies to formulate suitable local insurance products. However, current production methods are varied and different production methods are often adopted in the same area. The results of zoning are also different, thus bringing some difficulties to policymakers. The most commonly used analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the new method of disaster damage rate were used to evaluate the drought risk of wheat in Anhui Province and the risk zoning map was made. The Euclidean distance method is used to compare the actual distribution of the two plots with that of the drought. It is found that the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has subjectivity in constructing the judgment matrix, and the results deviate from the actual situation. However, the method of calculating the disaster rate excludes the influence of human factors , The result is closer to the actual situation.