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新产品试制是一种创新活动,科技的进步和市场的竞争对新产品试制的周期以及投入的成本提出了更高的要求。通过建立的新产品试制项目GERT模型来反映其完成的整个过程,提出了追加费用同活动完成概率之间的影响关系,用大系统结构的思想分析了活动概率的变化如何影响整个新产品试制项目完成概率,建立了总系统的动态规划模型及各子系统的非线性规划模型来进行费用概率优化分析,并构造了一个例子对模型进行了实施。结果表明:优化模型具有较强的可操作性,对实际决策有很强的指导意义。
Trial production of new products is an innovative activity. The progress of science and technology and the market competition put higher requirements on the trial period of new products and the cost of inputting new products. Through the establishment of the new product trial project GERT model to reflect the completion of the whole process, proposed additional costs and activities to complete the probability of the relationship between the impact of the system structure with the idea of how the changes in the probability of activity affect the entire new product trial project Complete the probability, establish the dynamic programming model of the total system and the nonlinear programming model of each subsystem to carry out cost probability optimization analysis, and construct an example to carry out the model. The results show that the optimization model has strong operability and is very instructive to practical decision-making.