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鉴于全球原油供应会因产油国延长减产协议继续收紧,而原油需求则会因主要原油需求国经济形势良好而继续增长,预计2017年下半年,国际油价总体呈上行趋势。2017年年初至今,国际油价总体呈现区间震荡走势,波动重心较去年同期大幅上移,首行Brent价格多数时间在50—57美元/桶区间波动。支撑油价上涨的主要动力有三个方面:一是OPEC和以俄罗斯为代表的非OPEC主要产油国达成15年来首个联合减产协议,并自2017年1月起开始正式减产,联合减产规模接近180万桶/日,使原油供应大幅收紧,全球原油市场再平衡
As the global crude oil supply will continue to be tightened due to the prolonged production cuts of oil-producing countries, the demand for crude oil will continue to grow due to the favorable economic conditions of the major oil-demanding countries. It is estimated that in the second half of 2017, the international oil price will generally go up. From the beginning of 2017 to the present, the international oil price generally fluctuated in a range of directions. The center of gravity of the fluctuation surged sharply over the same period of last year. The first Brent price fluctuated between USD 50-57 / barrel most of the time. The main driving force behind the rise in oil prices has three aspects: First, OPEC reached the first co-production agreement with non-OPEC major oil-producing countries represented by Russia in 15 years and formally reduced their production since January 2017. The scale of joint production cuts is close to 180 Million barrels a day has tightened the supply of crude oil and rebalanced the global crude oil market