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本文利用2003年1月至2008年12月的月度数据,运用协整分析以及误差修正模型,对人民币实际有效汇率与北京市一般贸易出口、一般贸易进口的关系进行了实证分析,得出以下基本结论:这三个变量之间存在长期均衡关系,北京市一般贸易出口在长期中受人民币实际有效汇率的负影响,一般贸易进口在长期中受人民币实际有效汇率的正影响;在短期中,北京市一般贸易进口受到汇率波动的影响较大。因此北京市一般贸易企业要通过多种途径切实做好汇率风险管理。
Using the monthly data from January 2003 to December 2008, this paper used the cointegration analysis and error correction model to empirically analyze the relationship between the real effective exchange rate of the RMB and Beijing’s general trade exports and general trade imports. Conclusion: There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between these three variables, and Beijing’s general trade exports are negatively affected by the real effective exchange rate of the RMB in the long-term. General trade imports are positively affected by the real effective exchange rate of the RMB in the long-term; in the short-term, Beijing The general trade import of the city is greatly affected by exchange rate fluctuations. Therefore, Beijing’s general trading enterprises must do a good job in managing exchange rate risks through various means.