论文部分内容阅读
金价正经受来自多方面的压力,重现单边牛市的几率甚微,而供求因素则是影响金价中长期走势的最大风险。2012年四季度,黄金终止涨势进入下跌通道,迄今已从1800美元上方跌至1600美元下方,跌幅达11%。其主要原因在于世界经济、金融形势趋于好转,欧债危机亦趋于缓和,黄金做为不生息资产,其吸引力正逐渐下降。但是,随着全球资金“大转向”的来到,笔者认为,黄金在短期内仍有一波涨势可期;而从更长的时间段来
Gold is experiencing pressure from many aspects to reproduce the little chance of a unilateral bull market, while the supply and demand factors are the biggest risk affecting the gold price in the long-term trend. In the fourth quarter of 2012, gold’s rally ended its downward trend and so far dropped 11% from below $ 1,600 to below $ 1,600. The main reason is that the world economy and the financial situation are getting better and the debt crisis in Europe is also easing. As gold is not an interest-bearing asset, its attractiveness is gradually declining. However, with the arrival of global funds “big turn ”, I believe there is still a wave of gold rally in the short term; from a longer period of time