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美国著名情报学家兰开斯特先生对无纸社会的描绘和预测,就是许多人自电子文献诞生之日起,对其发展表明乐观态度的突出例证之一。但电子文献发展现状表明他的预测过于乐观。在我国,电子文献的使用率还非常低。《全国国民阅读与购买倾向抽样调查分析报告》(2002)(中国出版科学研究所所发布的数据)显示我国国民只有4.4%的人使用过电子文献,有7.7%的使用者认为目前电子文献的价格比较便宜,有33.5%的使用者认为价格合适;还有58.8%的使用者认为价格比较贵。价格成为影响电子文献发展的因素之一。
The delineation and prediction of the paperless society by the famous American information scientist Lancaster is one of many outstanding examples of many people optimistic about their development since the date of the birth of the electronic document. However, the current state of electronic literature shows that his forecast is too optimistic. In our country, the usage of electronic documents is still very low. The National Survey on National Purchasing Tendency and Sampling Survey (2002) (data published by China Institute of Press & Publication) shows that only 4.4% of our nationals have used electronic documents and 7.7% of users think that the current electronic documents The price is cheaper, 33.5% of users think the price is right; there are 58.8% of users think the price is more expensive. Price has become one of the factors affecting the development of electronic literature.