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根据我省镇海县(1955—1986)、慈溪县(1953—1986)历年晚稻穗瘟发生程度的系统分级资料,分轻(1级)、中(2级)、重(3级)三级,采用马尔可夫链概率转移矩阵,作出1984、1985、1986连续三年的超长期预测检验值。由概率转移矩阵得出状态之间演变规律,考虑信息量,预测出两地各连续三年的发生等级,均与实测值相符;同理预报出1987年晚稻穗瘟在镇海县属轻发生年,在慈溪县属中发生年;得出在两地不会大流行的预测值。
According to the systematic grading data of the occurrence of late rice panicle blast in Zhenhai county of our province (1955-1986) and Cixi county (1953-1986), we classified graded light (grade 1), intermediate (grade 2) and grade (grade 3) Markov chain probability transfer matrix was used to make 1984,1985,1986 three consecutive years of long-term forecasting test value. From the probability transfer matrix, we can get the law of evolution between the states, and consider the amount of information, and predict the occurrence levels of each of the three places for three consecutive years, which are consistent with the measured values. , Occurring in Cixi County; come to predict the prevalence in both places will not pandemic.