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在灾害的综合研究中,自然灾害风险评价是灾害研究的一个热点领域。对自然灾害进行准确的趋势判断,其理论和现实意义重大。利用可公度信息提取方法和蝴蝶结构图法对1900年以来印度尼西亚Ms≥7.8的强震进行了分析,认为印度尼西亚在2014年强震信号较强,有可能发生较大震级的地震。将地震对称性的空间表象、动力学基础及其物理机理进行有机的结合可以作为地震趋势判断的依据,为后续研究提供一些启示。
In the comprehensive study of disasters, natural disaster risk assessment is a hot area of disaster research. Accurate trend judgments on natural disasters have great theoretical and practical significance. Strong earthquakes of Ms≥7.8 in Indonesia since 1900 have been analyzed by using the method of commensurate information extraction and the butterfly chart method. It is concluded that strong earthquakes in Indonesia are strong in 2014, and earthquakes with large magnitude may occur. The organic combination of the spatial representation, dynamic basis and physical mechanism of seismic symmetry can be used as the basis for judging the seismic tendency and provide some inspiration for the follow-up study.