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本文使用中国2001年1月-2005年5月月度数据,运用单位根检验、回归分析、协整分析等计量方法对我国信贷市场货币政策传导机制进行了实证分析。实证结果发现:在从中央银行货币政策到信贷市场的传导过程中,货币供应量与金融机构贷款总量之间存在稳定的均衡关系,利率与金融机构贷款总量之间不存在稳定的均衡关系;M0、M1对信贷市场贷款有显著的正相关影响;从信贷市场到货币政策最终目标的传导过程中,金融机构贷款对居民消费行为有显著的正相关影响。
This paper uses the monthly data of China from January 2001 to May 2005, and empirically analyzes the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in China’s credit market by unit root test, regression analysis and co-integration analysis. The empirical results show that during the conduction from the central bank’s monetary policy to the credit market, there is a stable and balanced relationship between the money supply and the total loans of financial institutions, and there is no stable equilibrium between the interest rate and the total loans of financial institutions ; M0, M1 have a significant positive correlation with credit market loans; during the transmission from the credit market to the ultimate goal of monetary policy, the loans of financial institutions have a significant positive correlation with resident consumption behavior.