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在三十多年高速增长之后,中国经济增长可持续性成为学者们关注的焦点。本文将人口因素纳入分析框架,基于均衡和非均衡增长两种视角,对中国经济增长奇迹背后的动力源泉进行了分解。基于均衡视角研究表明,人口转变对于中国经济增长贡献度约为11.71%;资本深化以及人力资本增加的贡献度分别为56.75%和11.47%;全要素生产率对于经济增长贡献度约为20.07%,但在分析期间呈现出明显的下降趋势。基于非均衡视角分析可发现,在分析期间由于劳动力省际间流动导致人均GDP提高212元,劳动力在部门之间流动导致人均GDP提高1612元。深入研究可发现,尽管中国各地区间经济发展处于不同阶段,产业结构相互间存在较大差异,但结构效应却呈现出几乎一致的变化趋势。最后,文章对于中国经济增长模式转变提出了相应政策建议。
After thirty years of rapid growth, the sustainability of China’s economic growth has become the focus of scholars. In this paper, population factors are included in the analytical framework. Based on the balanced and unbalanced growth perspectives, the motivation behind China’s miracle of economic growth is decomposed. Studies based on a balanced perspective show that the contribution of population change to China’s economic growth is about 11.71%, that of capital deepening and human capital increase are 56.75% and 11.47% respectively, and that of total factor productivity contributes about 20.07% to economic growth During the analysis showed a clear downward trend. Based on the analysis of unbalanced perspectives, it can be found that per capita GDP increased by 212 yuan during the analysis period due to the flow of labor among provinces, and the flow of labor among sectors led to an increase of 1,612 yuan in per capita GDP. In-depth study shows that although the economic development among different regions in China is at different stages and the industrial structures differ greatly from each other, the structural effects show almost the same trend of change. Finally, the article put forward the corresponding policy suggestions for the change of China’s economic growth mode.