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本研究利用2012—2013年甘肃省马铃薯主栽区的气象资料,结合甘肃马铃薯晚疫病发生的实情,筛选出显著影响晚疫病发生的相关气象因子,建立了甘肃干旱山区,二阴区和川塬区的马铃薯晚疫病始发期预报方程,但川塬区晚疫病始发期预报模型还需进一步的设计与优化。方程模拟结果:温度是二阴区内晚疫病始发的关键因素;降水量主要影响干旱山区马铃薯的晚疫病发生;在同一地区内,川塬区和二阴区晚疫病始发期早于干旱山区,这与干旱山区空气流动性相对强于川塬区和二阴区有关。通过对甘肃干旱山区,二阴区与川塬区马铃薯晚疫病始发期预报方程进行验证,得知预报方程对干旱山区和二阴区晚疫病始发期的预测准确率较高,预测始发期区间较小,误差小,在甘肃晚疫病预警和防治工作中具有较强的指导作用。
Based on the meteorological data of potato planting areas in Gansu from 2012 to 2013 and the actual occurrence of potato late blight in Gansu Province, this study screened the relevant meteorological factors that significantly affected the occurrence of late blight and established arid mountainous area, Area of potato late blight onset prediction equation, but the onset of late blight in Sichuan forecast model needs further design and optimization. The results of the equation simulation showed that temperature was the key factor in the initiation of late blight in the second shade area. Precipitation mainly affected the late blight of potato in the arid mountainous area. In the same area, the onset of late blight occurred earlier in the same area than in the drought Mountainous area, which is relatively stronger than the arid mountainous area where the air mobility is higher than that of the Sichuan-Yuanliao area and the two Yinxian areas. The forecasting equation of potato late blight incidence in arid mountainous area, two-shade area and Sichuanyuan area of Gansu Province was validated. The forecasting accuracy of prediction equation was higher for the onset period of late blight in arid mountainous area and two-shade area, The period interval is small and the error is small. It has a strong guiding role in warning and prevention of late blight in Gansu Province.