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借助MATLAB优化工具箱,考虑土性参数变异性影响,采用二次多项式序列响应面法求解边坡可靠指标和对应的安全系数,并用可靠指标对应的失效概率对安全系数进行折减计算,采用可靠指标与折减概率安全系数联合评价方法对边坡稳定性进行综合评价,将计算结果和滑裂面图示与传统定值方法和二元指标方法的中值安全系数折减法进行对比分析。对比结果表明:在土性参数变异性较大时,即便传统定值方法计算出的安全系数明显大于1,也会存在较大失稳风险;但该方法利用失效概率对安全系数进行折减的过程,实质是提取安全系数中可信部分的过程,剔除了其中由于忽略不确定性因素而放大边坡稳定性的成分,从而保证了评价结论的可靠性。
With MATLAB optimization toolbox, considering the influence of variability of soil parameters, the quadratic polynomial response surface method is used to solve the slope reliability index and the corresponding safety factor, and the safety factor is calculated by using the failure probability corresponding to the reliability index. Index and reduction probability safety coefficient of joint evaluation method for the comprehensive evaluation of slope stability, the calculation results and the sliding surface of the traditional fixed-value method and binary index method compared with the median safety factor reduction method for comparative analysis. The results show that when the variability of soil parameters is large, the risk of large instability will exist even if the safety factor calculated by the traditional method is obviously larger than 1. However, this method reduces the safety factor by using the failure probability The process is essentially the process of extracting the credible part of the safety factor, excluding the components which enlarge the slope stability due to ignoring the uncertain factors, so as to ensure the reliability of the evaluation conclusion.