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根据35年气象资料和小麦条锈病病情资料,分析了条锈病流行规律。结果是,条锈病大流行年大都发生在温暖偏涝时段内,太阳黑子活动周期谷年或谷年前后4月异常高温,4月或5月及4—6月异常多雨的年份。而且,条锈病大流行年气象生态因素与一般流行年和非流行年有显著差异。在此基础上制定多因子综合预报表和建立多元回归方程预测式,历史拟合率达100％和97％。因此,当条锈菌有新的生理小种出现和品种抗性变异时,适宜气象因素是导致条锈病大流行的主导因素。
Based on 35 years of meteorological data and wheat stripe rust disease data, the article analyzes the epidemic rule of stripe rust. As a result, most of the year of the stripe rust pandemic occurred during periods of warmer floods, unusually high temperatures during the year or year in April or May and April-June. Moreover, the meteorological ecological factors of the annual epidemic of stripe rust are significantly different from the general epidemic year and the non-epidemic year. Based on this, a multi-factor comprehensive forecasting table was established and a multiple regression equation was established to predict the historical matching rate of 100% and 97%. Therefore, when the emergence of new races of P. striiformis and the variation of variety resistance, the suitable meteorological factors are the main factors leading to the stripe rust epidemic.